Pandemic good news…


Date: September 21, 2022

01) LINK

“CDC variant report

Some increase in BA.4.6 and BA.2.75


Progressive US increase, starting to slowly displace BA.5

US of America (9,526)

Canada (1,007)

Denmark (500)

France (400)

Australia (288)

Germany (248)

Chile (242)

Dominican Republic (173), Peru (149), Luxembourg (123), Belgium (102), Israel (101), Italy (94), Ireland (93), Sweden (92), Spain (85), Netherlands (84), Brazil (76), Argentina (68), Japan (67), New Zealand (60), Switzerland (54), Puerto Rico (53), South Africa (53), Ecuador (49), Mexico (35), Colombia (34), Trinidad and Tobago (30), Czech Republic (27), Costa Rica (23), Jamaica (21), Portugal (20), South Korea (19), Austria (17), Botswana (17), Indonesia (13), Sint Maarten (12), Senegal (11)


Some US increase

Growth rate is currently 61% per week relative to co-circulating lineages

Current US nowcast

BA.5 84.8% (UK, 87.2%)

BA.4.6 10.3% (UK, 3.3)

BA.4 1.8%

BF.7 1.7%

BA.2.75 1.3% (UK, 1.6%)

BA.2 0% (UK, 0.5%)

BA.1s 0%

Delta 0%

Others 0% (UK, 2.4%)

XE 0%

UK, technical briefing 45

(September 2022)

Contains early data and analysis on emerging variants

Findings have a high level of uncertainty

Data cut-off of 5 September 2022


BA.5 is the predominant circulating variant in the United Kingdom

Newly designated variant – V-22SEP-01 (BA.4.6)

Omicron sub-lineage BA.4.6

An apparent small growth advantage relative to BA.5.

BA.4.6 represented 3.31% of UK samples

Preliminary neutralisation data from BA.4.6

Expect some immune escape from BA.4 or BA.5 antibodies

There is NO increased risk of hospital admission after BA.4 or BA.5 infection compared to BA.2 infection.

Expect some immune escape triple dosed recipients of the Pfizer BNT162b2 vaccine.

V-22JUL-01 (BA.2.75)

As of 6 September 2022

BA.2.75 in the UK, 1.6%

Does seem to have growth advantage over co-circulating lineages of,

61% per week

Two sub-lineages of BA.2.75 (BA.2.75.1 and BA.2.75.2) are currently being assessed

BA.4/BA.5 Severity

A case-control study

Risk of being admitted to hospital as an inpatient

Among people presenting to emergency care within 14 days of positive test.

Comparison, risk of admission with BA.4 or BA.5 versus BA.2

Between 16 March 2022 and 23 August 2022

BA.4 n = 2,530

BA.5 n = 12,026

BA.2 n = 17,022

Adjusted for age, sex, vaccination status, week of test, 2 days of extreme heat

There was no difference in the risk of admission between people infected with BA.4 compared to BA.2

There was no difference in the risk of admission between people infected with BA.5 compared to BA.2″


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